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The Singularity Is Near
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652쪽 | 381.00 * 586.74 * 96.52 (cm)
ISBN-10 : 0143037889
ISBN-13 : 9780143037880
The Singularity Is Near [Paperback] 중고
저자 Kurzweil, Ray | 출판사 Penguin Books
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“Startling in scope and bravado.” -Janet Maslin, The New York Times

“Artfully envisions a breathtakingly better world.” -Los Angeles Times

“Elaborate, smart and persuasive.” -The Boston Globe

“A pleasure to read.” -The Wall Street Journal


One of CBS News’s Best Fall Books of 2005 * Among St Louis Post-Dispatch’s Best Nonfiction Books of 2005 * One of Amazon.com’s Best Science Books of 2005

A radical and optimistic view of the future course of human development from the bestselling author of How to Create a Mind and The Age of Spiritual Machines who Bill Gates calls “the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence”

For over three decades, Ray Kurzweil has been one of the most respected and provocative advocates of the role of technology in our future. In his classic The Age of Spiritual Machines, he argued that computers would soon rival the full range of human intelligence at its best. Now he examines the next step in this inexorable evolutionary process: the union of human and machine, in which the knowledge and skills embedded in our brains will be combined with the vastly greater capacity, speed, and knowledge-sharing ability of our creations.

저자소개

저자 : Kurzweil, Ray
Ray Kurzweil is a prize-winning author and scientist. Recipient of the MIT-Lemelson Prize (the world’s largest for innovation), and inducted into the Inventor’s Hall of Fame, he received the 1999 National Medal of Technology. His books include:

How to Create a Mind: The Secret of Human Thought Revealed
www.howtocreateamind.com
Viking, November 2012

Transcend: Nine Steps to Living Well Forever
http://www.rayandterry.com/transcend/
Rodale Books, April 2009

The Singularity is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
www.Singularity.com
Viking / Penguin Books, September 2005
Duckworth, March 2006 (British Edition)
6 Foreign editions, including Korean, Japanese, Italian, Hebrew, Czech, Turkish

Fantastic Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever, co-authored with Terry Grossman, M.D.
www.Fantastic-Voyage.net
Rodale Books, October 2004
Rodale Books, May 2005 (British Edition)
5 Foreign editions, including French, Portugese, Korean, Chinese, and Czech

Are We Spiritual Machines: Ray Kurzweil versus the Critics of Strong AI
The Discovery Institute Press (2002)

The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence
Viking/Penguin Books, 1999
Orion Books, 1999 (British Edition)
Verlag Kiepenheuer & Witsch, 1999 (German Edition)
Allen & Unwin, 1999 (Australian Edition)
12 Foreign editions, including German, Spanish, Italian, Dutch, Japanese, Chinese, Korean, and Hebrew.

The 10% Solution for a Healthy Life
Crown Publishers, 1993
Bookman Press (Australian Edition), 1993
Crown Trade Paperbacks, 1995

The Age of Intelligent Machines
MIT Press, 1990
MIT Press Paperback Edition, 1992
Hanser Verlag (German Edition), 1993
Conacyt (Spanish Edition), 1994

목차


Acknowledgments xv
Prologue The Power of Ideas 1(6)
CHAPTER ONE The Six Epochs 7(28)
The Intuitive Linear View Versus the Historical Exponential View 10(4)
The Six Epochs 14(7)
Epoch One: Physics and Chemistry.
Epoch Two: Biology and DNA.
Epoch Three: Brains.
Epoch Four: Technology.
Epoch Five: The Merger of Human Technology with Human Intelligence.
Epoch Six: The Universe Wakes Up.
The Singularity Is Near 21(14)
CHAPTER TWO A Theory of Technology Evolution: The Law of Accelerating Returns 35(76)
The Nature of Order. The Life Cycle of a Paradigm. Fractal Designs. Farsighted Evolution.
The S-Curve of a Technology as Expressed in Its Life Cycle 51(5)
The Life Cycle of a Technology. From Goat Skins to Downloads.
Moore's Law and Beyond 56(16)
Moore's Law: Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?
The Fifth Paradigm.
Fractal Dimensions and the Brain.
DNA Sequencing, Memory, Communications, the Internet, and Miniaturization 72(24)
Information, Order, and Evolution: The Insights from Wolfram and Fredkin's Cellular Automata.
Can We Evolve Artificial Intelligence from Simple Rules?
The Singularity as Economic Imperative 96(15)
Get Eighty Trillion Dollars?imited Time Only.
Deflation...a Bad Thing?
CHAPTER THREE Achieving the Computational Capacity of the Human Brain 111(32)
The Sixth Paradigm of Computing Technology: Three-Dimensional Molecular Computing and Emerging Computational Technologies 111(11)
The Bridge to 3-D Molecular Computing.
Nanotubes Are Still the Best Bet.
Computing with Molecules.
Self-Assembly. Emulating Biology.
Computing with DNA. Computing with Spin.
Computing with Light.
Quantum Computing.
The Computational Capacity of the Human Brain 122(5)
Accelerating the Availability of Human-Level Personal Computing.
Human Memory Capacity.
The Limits of Computation 127(16)
Reversible Computing. How Smart Is a Rock?
The Limits of Nano-computing.
Setting a Date for the Singularity.
Memory and Computational Efficiency: A Rock Versus a Human Brain.
Going Beyond the Ultimate: Pico- and Femtotechnology and Bending the Speed of Light.
Going Back in Time.
CHAPTER FOUR Achieving the Software of Human Intelligence: How to Reverse Engineer the Human Brain 143(62)
Reverse Engineering the Brain: An Overview of the Task 144(5)
New Brain-Imaging and Modeling Tools.
The Software of the Brain.
Analytic Versus Neuromorphic Modeling of the Brain.
How Complex Is the Brain?
Modeling the Brain.
Peeling the Onion.
Is the Human Brain Different from a Computer? 149(8)
The Brain's Circuits Are Very Slow.
But It's Massively Parallel.
The Brain Combines Analog and Digital Phenomena.
The Brain Rewires Itself.
Most of the Details in the Brain Are Random.
The Brain Uses Emergent Properties.
The Brain Is Imperfect.
We Contradict Ourselves.
The Brain Uses Evolution.
The Patterns Are Important.
The Brain Is Holographic.
The Brain Is Deeply Connected.
The Brain Does Have an Architecture of Regions.
The Design of a Brain Region Is Simpler than the Design of a Neuron.
Trying to Understand Our Own Thinking: The Accelerating Pace of Research.
Peering into the Brain 157(10)
New Tools for Scanning the Brain.
Improving Resolution.
Scanning Using Nanobots.
Building Models of the Brain 167(27)
Subneural Models:
Synapses and Spines.
Neuron Models.
Electronic Neurons.
Brain Plasticity.
Modeling Regions of the Brain.
A Neuromorphic Model: The Cerebellum.
Another Example: Watts's Model of the Auditory Regions.
The Visual System.
Other Works in Progress: An Artificial Hippocampus and an Artificial Olivocerebellar Region.
Understanding Higher-Level Functions: Imitation, Prediction, and Emotion.
Interfacing the Brain and Machines 194(1)
The Accelerating Pace of Reverse Engineering the Brain 195(3)
The Scalability of Human Intelligence.
Uploading the Human Brain 198(7)
CHAPTER FIVE GNR: Three Overlapping Revolutions 205(95)
Genetics: The Intersection of Information and Biology 206(20)
Life's Computer. Designer Baby Boomers.
Can We Really Live Forever?
RNAi (RNA Interference).
Cell Therapies. Gene Chips.
Somatic Gene Therapy.
Reversing Degenerative Disease.
Combating Heart Disease.
Overcoming Cancer.
Reversing Aging.
DNA Mutations.
Toxic Cells.
Mitochondrial Mutations.
Intracellular Aggregates.
Extracellular Aggregates.
Cell Loss and Atrophy.
Human Cloning: The Least Interesting Application of Cloning Technology.
Why Is Cloning Important? Preserving Endangered Species and Restoring Extinct Ones.
Therapeutic Cloning.
Human Somatic-Cell Engineering.
Solving World Hunger.
Human Cloning Revisited.
Nanotechnology: The Intersection of Information and the Physical World 226(33)
The Biological Assembler.
Upgrading the Cell Nucleus with a Nano-computer and Nanobot.
Fat and Sticky Fingers.
The Debate Heats Up.
Early Adopters.
Powering the Singularity.
Applications of Nanotechnology to the Environment.
Nanobots in the Bloodstream.
Robotics: Strong AI 259(41)
Runaway AI.
The AI Winter.
AI's Toolkit.
Expert Systems.
Bayesian Nets.
Markov Models.
Neural Nets.
Genetic Algorithms (GAs).
Recursive Search.
Deep Fritz Draws: Are Humans Getting Smarter, or Are Computers Getting Stupider?
The Specialized-Hardware Advantage.
Deep Blue Versus Deep Fritz.
Significant Software Gains.
Are Human Chess Players Doomed?
Combining Methods.
A Narrow AI Sampler.
Military and Intelligence.
Space Exploration.
Medicine.
Science and Math.
Business, Finance, and Manufacturing.
Manufacturing and Robotics.
Speech and Language.
Entertainment and Sports.
Strong AI.
CHAPTER SIX The Impact... .299
A Panoply of Impacts.
...on the Human Body 300(12)
A New Way of Eating.
Redesigning the Digestive System.
Programmable Blood.
Have a Heart, or Not.
So What's Left?
Redesigning the Human Brain.
We Are Becoming Cyborgs.
Human Body Version 3.0.
...on the Human Brain 312(8)
The 2010 Scenario.
The 2030 Scenario.
Become Someone Else.
Experience Beamers.
Expand Your Mind.
...on Human Longevity 320(10)
The Transformation to Nonbiological Experience.
The Longevity of Information.
...on Warfare: The Remote, Robotic, Robust, Size-Reduced, Virtual-Reality Paradigm 330(5)
Smart Dust.
Nanoweapons.
Smart Weapons.
VR.
...on Learning 335(2)
...on Work 337(4)
Intellectual Property.
Decentralization.
...on Play 341(1)
...on the Intelligent Destiny of the Cosmos: Why We Are Probably Alone in the Universe 342(27)
The Drake Equation.
The Limits of Computation Revisited.
Bigger or Smaller.
Expanding Beyond the Solar System.
The Speed of Light Revisited.
Wormholes.
Changing the Speed of Light.
The Fermi Paradox Revisited.
The Anthropic Principle Revisited.
The Multiverse.
Evolving Universes.
Intelligence as the Destiny of the Universe.
The Ultimate Utility Function.
Hawking Radiation.
Why Intelligence Is More Powerful than Physics.
A Universe-Scale Computer.
The Holographic Universe.
CHAPTER SEVEN Ich bin ein Singularitarian 369(22)
Still Human?
The Vexing Question of Consciousness 376(6)
Who Am I? What Am I? 382(5)
The Singularity as Transcendence 387(4)
CHAPTER EIGHT The Deeply Intertwined Promise and Peril of GNR 391(36)
Intertwined Benefits... 396(1)
...and Dangers 397(3)
A Panoply of Existential Risks 400(8)
The Precautionary Principle.
The Smaller the Interaction, the Larger the Explosive Potential.
Our Simulation Is Turned Off.
Crashing the Party.
GNR: The Proper Focus of Promise Versus Peril.
The Inevitability of a Transformed Future.
Totalitarian Relinquishment.
Preparing the Defenses 408(2)
Strong AI.
Returning to the Past?
The Idea of Relinquishment 410(6)
Broad Relinquishment.
Fine-Grained Relinquishment.
Dealing with Abuse.
The Threat from Fundamentalism.
Fundamentalist Humanism.
Development of Defensive Technologies and the Impact of Regulation 416(6)
Protection from "Unfriendly" Strong AI.
Decentralization.
Distributed Energy.
Civil Liberties in an Age of Asymmetric Warfare.
A Program for GNR Defense 422(5)
CHAPTER NINE Response to Critics 427(58)
A Panoply of Criticisms 427(5)
The Criticism from Incredulity 432(1)
The Criticism from Malthus 433(2)
Exponential Trends Don't Last Forever.
A Virtually Unlimited Limit.
The Criticism from Software 435(7)
Software Stability.
Software Responsiveness.
Software Price-Performance.
Software Development Productivity.
Software Complexity.
Accelerating Algorithms.
The Ultimate Source of Intelligent Algorithms.
The Criticism from Analog Processing 442(1)
The Criticism from the Complexity of Neural Processing 442(8)
Brain Complexity.
A Computer's Inherent Dualism.
Levels and Loops.
The Criticism from Microtubules and Quantum Computing 450(3)
The Criticism from the Church-Turing Thesis 453(3)
The Criticism from Failure Rates 456(1)
The Criticism from "Lock-In" 457(1)
The Criticism from Ontology: Can a Computer Be Conscious? 458(11)
Kurzweil's Chinese Room.
The Criticism from the Rich-Poor Divide 469(1)
The Criticism from the Likelihood of Government Regulation 470(3)
The Unbearable Slowness of Social Institutions.
The Criticism from Theism 473(6)
The Criticism from Holism 479(6)
Epilogue 485(4)
How Singular? Human Centrality.
Resources and Contact Information 489(2)
Appendix: The Law of Accelerating Returns Revisited 491(6)
Notes 497(106)
Index 603

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